Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Week 2: Bump-In-The-Road

Things got off to a good start last week, having a higher level of production than I anticipated with a higher sales price than projected. Of course, such good luck had to be followed by bad luck. The market price on my good has dropped significantly due to a seeming influx of product from someone willing to sell almost 20% below the average sales price from the last year. Thankfully, this seller has sold their entire supply so hopefully the price will pick back up. But until then, I'm sitting on $30M of product.
Of course, my inventory is awkward at the moment as I have an oversupply of about half of my goods, the right supply for about 1/3rd of my goods, and an under supply for the remainder.

Week Inflow Outflow Actual Net Expected Net
0 0 -77,836,602 -77,836,602 -77,836,602
1 29,389,995 -21,983,814 7,406,180 8,000,000
2 24,600,000 -39,243,550 -14,643,550 10,000,000
3 105,000,000 -60,000,000 XXX 45,000,000
4 75,000,000 -60,000,000 XXX 15,000,000
TOTAL 53,989,995 -139,063,967 -85.073,972 XXX

I'm expecting prices to recover this week and for my backlogged inventory to sell at my profitable price level. If not, I have enough liquidity to continue funding production and building inventory. My operation is still not large enough to have a significant impact on prices. My projections wouldn't be so far off if sales had happened. My inflows this week would have been ~55M for a net gain of +15M. We'll see how next week breaks.

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