Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Week 9: Steady As She Goes

No major changes this week aside from keeping my low-level production at full capacity which meant semi-solid production at my final production site.
My costs were down a touch this week. I need to figure out what goods I'm short on and place some orders so I'll probably have higher costs next week, but I've got a solid supply of all but one of my inputs -- which I do have a pair of outstanding contracts for.
I'm being a little aggressive with my "inflow" value this week. I anticipate my products selling today, but they are technically still an account receivable and I usually don't include them in the table until they've sold. If they don't sell until tomorrow I'll adjust the table to reflect that so that my inflows are appropriate. I am fairly low on liquidity as a result (75% of my inflow is a receivable right now). But, with that said, if they do sell by today then I'll have matched last week's sales which is a nice steady step towards complete profitability.

Week Inflow Outflow Actual Net Expected Net
0 0 -77,836,602 -77,836,602 -77,836,602
1 29,389,995 -21,983,814 7,406,180 8,000,000
2 24,600,000 -39,243,550 -14,643,550 10,000,000
3 33,129,974 -5,490,829 27,639,145 45,000,000
4 0 -1,499,400 -1,499,400 15,000,000
5 0 0 0 15,000,000
6 12,800,000 -16,000,000 -3,200,000 15,000,000
7 22,047,585 -50,448,311 -28,400,726 5,000,000
8 44,800,000 -28,133,226 16,666,774 5,000,000
9* 44,800,000 -23,220,983 21,579,018 15,000,000
10 45,000,000 -30,000,000 XXX 15,000,000
11 45,000,000 -30,000,000 XXX 15,000,000
TOTAL 211,567,553 -265,784,605 -54,217,051 XXX

If I keep going at this rate, week 12 will be my official profitability point. And really, that's actually a poor analysis as my costs for the current week are generally for production in the following week. For example, of the 20M that I spent this week, only about 8M of that has actually gone into production, the rest of it is sitting in a queue to be produced for next week's sales - so my cashflows don't line up for an appropriate profit analysis.
I'm keeping fairly detailed data so perhaps at week 12 I'll do a full profitability analysis and break down my marginal costs, revenues, and profits to see what kind of return I'm earning on my inputs.

Week 11 will bring a new component as I will have completed a skill tree that will bring my secondary revenue center on-line. That means a whole new table and it's own cost and revenue tracking.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Week 7/8: Investment and Expansion

This week's big news is expansion onto a new production support line.
If you look at the first 6 weeks you might ask, "Why the hell would you expand? You're 64 million in the red!" Well, beyond my start-up costs, as of the end of week 6 I was up a net of 13M and many of my fixed assets were sitting idle far too much. Even after my expansion into another production support line, I still have a production up-time of only around 20%.
My expansion cost me about $10M in fixed investments while I pushed another $30M into inputs. I continue to face supply challenges with just a handful of inputs that keep my production lines held-up but my efficiency is improving just a little bit with every passing day. I have about $36M of sales goods awaiting purchase with another $12M of goods in active production. If I cashed out entirely today, I could nearly break-even on my total investment. But that's not the point of an investment, is it?

Week Inflow Outflow Actual Net Expected Net
0 0 -77,836,602 -77,836,602 -77,836,602
1 29,389,995 -21,983,814 7,406,180 8,000,000
2 24,600,000 -39,243,550 -14,643,550 10,000,000
3 33,129,974 -5,490,829 27,639,145 45,000,000
4 0 -1,499,400 -1,499,400 15,000,000
5 0 0 0 15,000,000
6 12,800,000 -16,000,000 -3,200,000 15,000,000
7 22,047,585 -50,448,311 -28,400,726 5,000,000
8 44,800,000 -28,133,226 16,666,774 5,000,000
9 45,000,000 -30,000,000 XXX 15,000,000
10 45,000,000 -30,000,000 XXX 15,000,000
TOTAL 166,767,553 -242,563,622 -75,796,069 XXX

My net cash flow over these two weeks is negative yet again. I had to liquidate some mineral assets that I've been holding onto for cases such as this; however, as week 8 clearly shows, I significantly improved my production capabilities. This extra capital allowed me to expand and purchase some missing inputs.
Included in the week 7 costs is my first inter-corporation trade, of rather significant savings for me. Cutting out transaction and broker fees, I saved nearly $400,000 in taxes alone while agreeing to pay my corp-mate a price that would likely have taken a number of days, if not a week or more, on the market to fulfill. This time savings is largely the reason why I'm sitting on a large stockpile of receivables and have had good production up-time. He seems to have a pretty strong supply-chain for some goods that I've had trouble supplying in a timely manner so I think this will improve my time-to-market considerably.

Monday, November 3, 2014

Weeks 4/5/6: Life.

Whew, it's been a crazy pair of weeks. Production all but halted during this time and I made absolutely no sales, but I did finish a rather important skill to significantly improve production speed.
While I'm not entirely back -- travel plans next week plus another round of everyone's favorite financial competition ModelOff on Saturday -- I should atleast get my production moving again. I've been able to put about 2/3rds of the product I did generate over this time up for sale; however, I also placed some rather large orders for my inputs to keep my capital active. With about 15M in new orders placed and some upgrades to my production chain, I'm hoping to be able to really kickstart things when my schedule calms down in a few weeks.

Week Inflow Outflow Actual Net Expected Net
0 0 -77,836,602 -77,836,602 -77,836,602
1 29,389,995 -21,983,814 7,406,180 8,000,000
2 24,600,000 -39,243,550 -14,643,550 10,000,000
3 33,129,974 -5,490,829 27,639,145 45,000,000
4 0 -1,499,400 -1,499,400 15,000,000
5 0 0 0 15,000,000
6 12,800,000 -16,000,000 -3,200,000 15,000,000
7 15,000,000 -10,000,000 XXX 5,000,000
8 15,000,000 -10,000,000 XXX 5,000,000
TOTAL 99,919,969 -163,982,085 -64.062,117 XXX

While the net cashflow over the last 3 weeks is negative, I am sitting on a really unbalanced stockpile of inventory. My newly placed orders don't do much to correct for that issue; however, my skill upgrade should allow me to start catching up on one of the backlogs. My main goal over the next two weeks is to keep a relatively steady level of production and shoot for a gross sales amount of about 15M per week for a fairly modest revenue stream. I'm including relatively high costs as I hope to take an hour one day and set up an additional resource input line to take advantage of my skill upgrades and balance my inventory. If I can do that, then weeks 9 and 10 should have a very favorable outlook.
I also need to follow up with my corp mates to see how their production lines are coming along. If they are nearing production level, I'll definitely have to step my game up a notch to take advantage of the new supply in a timely manner.